By Zulfiqar Ali Khan

HUNZA, Jan 23, 2010: It is about three weeks since the massive landslide hit Atabad village, blocking the Karakoram Highway (KKH), the only land link between China and Pakistan, bringing to a halt the civic and commercial life in Gojal. With the passage of time, shops, stores, and health units are running out of stocks of food and other daily use items and medicines.

An artificial lake has formed on the Hunza River inundating a number of villages in Gojal. The rise in the level of lake water is endangering thousands of lives upstream and downstream in other parts of Hunza-Nagar and Gilgit districts.

The people while praising government for its quick relief operation and airlifting of food to Gojal are highly critical of the pace of work in releasing the lake water. “There is a threat of sudden outburst of the lake,” said an official involved in the relief operation and monitoring of the post-disaster situation quoting a latest report prepared by Wapda experts.

“The outburst of the lake can generate a wave of 20 to 30 meters high which can wipe out settlements and installations downstream,” he added and proposed “all the line departments should be asked for physical survey/identification of such vulnerable installations and evacuation of people to safer places.”

He also apprehended that all the bridges starting from Sarat down to Gilgit are extremely vulnerable. Hence, all the line departments may be directed to ensure stock of necessary items for at least two to three months.

Although the Frontier Works Organisation and China Road and Bridges Construction Company (CRBC) workers have started work to remove debris and construction of approach road to the blocked site, the pace is very slow, he said stressing the authorities concerned to expedite the work to create a breach in the lake so that the losses could be minimised.

“Most of the machinery available with the workers is not in good condition. The government should arrange latest and reliable machinery from either CRBC or any other firm,” he said.The Frontier Works Organisation has estimated that the lake water will be released in 45 days. The experts monitoring the water level in the lake opine that the whole Ayeenabad and part of Shishkat Payeen (lower) would submerge before the 45 days deadline. The lake has already submerged 800 kanals of cultivable and non-cultivable lands, thousands of fruit and forest trees in Ayeenabad. Anticipating the possible threat, Focus Humanitarian Assistance has evacuated the inmates of nine houses.

Niaz Wali, a geologist of Focus informed Dawn that the water outlet in the blockade is still 98 meters high from the present water level in the lake. He said the water rises with an average of 1.1 meters (3.6 feet) in 24 hours and the water inflow in the lake is 250 cubic meter meters (882 cubic feet) per second. He said the inflow could increase with the rise in the temperature. The lake is stretched over about 9 kilometres. About 33 families in Ayeenabad and 119 families in Shishkat Payeen (lower) were facing immediate threat, he said.

The water has inundated about 500 meters of KKH in Ayeenabad further disconnecting and damaging about 5km of the highway. According to estimates, around 6,000 people living in Shishkat, Ayeenabad and Gulmit along the banks of the Hunza River could be affected by the lake. Various other villages downstream the lake are also in danger of being flooded. If the lake outbursts it could affect another 18,000 people.

The preliminary report of Focus indicates the potential threat for gradual inundation of Ayeenabad. The report further mentions that the impact on downstream low-lying areas will be higher due to late intervention in removal of the barrier. The report identifies risks of damage due to bank collapse and slope failure in downstream.

Such delays could increase water to a level, which could burst and wash the settlements, KKH, electricity and communication structures along with all major bridges on KKH in Hunza-Nagar and Gilgit districts further creating a disaster in major parts of Gilgit-Baltistan.

The local community is not only critical of government’s inaction but also complains about the mainstream media for ignoring a disaster threatening not only thousands of lives but also the communication link between Pakistan and China.

Ghulam Abbas, an affected man from Ayeenabad while applauding the voluntary spirit of the local community appealed to the government and army to understand the urgency of the situation. “The landslide buried two of my brothers and one nephew and the lake submerged all my properties and of my five brothers”, he said. We are now waiting to see our houses to be submerged, he added.

Cracks in the disaster-hit Atabad had been seen after heavy rains in 1993 and 1996. The 2002 earthquake in Diamer valley further activated the moving mass and on the report of the local community and a report in Dawn, a technical team of Focus conducted a detailed survey of the village during September 2002. The team in the report predicted the probable impact and intimated the authorities.

These facts were further verified by the studies conducted by National Disaster Management Authority later. Following which the Focus evacuated about 23 families from the upper Atabad to safer places.

A delegation from Atabad village also met Governor Qamar Zaman Kaira and other officials two days before the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly elections to apprise them of their concern but no prompt action was taken and the villagers boycotted the November 12 polls.On the fateful day on Jan 4, the massive landslide hit the village taking the lives of 19 people, mostly women and children, and injured several. The disaster fully destroyed over 43 houses, a community centre, a school, a dispensary, a number of cattle pens, thousands of fruit and timber plants.

About 173 families, including 1,673 men, women and children, were evacuated from the disaster site and shifted to school buildings and relief camps in Altit. According to the experts, cracks are developing in the remaining part of the village making the area dangerous for human settlement.

About 55 families from Salmanabad villages were repatriated to their houses after declaring it safe, however about 130 families are waiting in camps for permanent resettlement. Initially the local community managed the disaster with the help of district administration. Different government agencies and NGOs, including Focus, Pakistan Red Crescent Society and other local volunteers played active role in the relief operation. The government was also quick in paying compensation for the families of those who lost their lives or received injuries.

The immediate airlifting of food, medicines and fuel to Gojal due to the blockade of KKH saved a possible famine in the largest Tehsil of Gilgit-Baltistan with over 25,000 population. The government has, however, not yet materialised its promise to open the Khunjerab Pass for the supply of food and other items, as airlifting is not a permanent solution due to the prolonged blockade of KKH. Authorities say that it would take more than two months to open KKH to traffic.--Dawn